How tough will the post-Memorandum oversight be?

The political scene has –correctly- its eyes set on the FYROM name issue, especially after the leaked proposals of Mr. Nimetz, the rivalry between the government and the main opposition party, the different positions adopted within the parties forming the government, meaning SYRIZA and Independent Greeks (ANEL). This national issue correctly is troubling the Greek citizens on whether they should organize demonstrations or not, what is the Greek Orthodox Church saying etc.

However, while the FYROM issue is the first political news in the country, others, which are equally important, may escape the public’s attention. For example, what will the country look like after the end of the program.  How will the country really be without Memoranda after August 2018?

Because, let’s not forget, that the more economically strong Greece is, with high growth rates and a productive restructuring plan for the country, the more able the country is able to support national issues.

With regards to the issue of the memorandum, although the Prime Minister is boldly announcing the country’s exit from the Memoranda and the crisis, the Deputy Minister of Finance, Mr. George Houliarakis, is warning publicly that at the end of the program an oversight mechanism must be agreed, in the framework of the European semesters, following the example of Cyprus and Portugal.  He further adds that these two countries do not have a debt problem, suggesting that supervision for Greece will be even tighter.

Additionally, a European official stressed that the case of Greece is differs compared to other countries with memoranda, due to debt relief, its surpluses, and its low lending requirements for the coming years, but also thanks to the very positive economic environment in the Eurozone. The European official stated that as there will be no pre-emptive program for Greece (like for example, the support credit line proposed by Mr. Yannis Stournaras), there will be enhanced supervision. Although there are many positive factors, supervision will be further enhanced … The question is: How much will it be enhanced and for how many years?

Mr. Stournaras believes this to be until the country manages to repay 75% of its debt, which means supervision until 2060!

Kyriakos Mitsotakis is betting on that, in order to deconstruct of Mr. Tsipras’ rhetoric. So far, he seems successful in this, having at his side, valuable allies, including a number of European officials who will star in the … last act of the Memorandum drama.

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